Fantasy Football Projections
Yearly & Weekly Fantasy Football Projections
There are two kinds of fantasy football projections: yearly fantasy football projections and weekly fantasy football projections. There is a stark difference between these two types of football projections, but a good fantasy football owner is going to look at multiple versions of each - and possibly even make their own in preparation for their fantasy football contests. Let's take a look at the different types of fantasy football projections you need to be looking at.
Yearly Fantasy Football Projections - Preseason Fantasy Football Projections
Yearly projections are made by fantasy football experts, fantasy football magazines and football websites all over the Internet. These projections tend to take into account last year's final statistics, NFL free agent moves and player moves throughout the offseason, any retirements that might have happened either to players or coaches, as well as additions made through the yearly NFL Draft. By looking at the trends in the NFL, fantasy football gurus try to adjust their fantasy football projections from the end of the season to the start of the next season.
This is a tricky business. Often, projecting fantasy football stats requires a lot of guesswork. Let's look at an example.
Fantasy Football Projections - An Example
Let's look at a hypothetical fantasy football receiver who had a breakout year the previous season and is coming off a Top 20 wide receiver fantasy football season. Imagine that this guy has the same quarterback in 2009 that he did in 2008. But then note that the offensive line has two new linemen. The team also drafted a running back in the first round of the NFL Draft. Also, the star tight end missed half of the previous season with an injury. Finally, let's stipulate that the wide receiver across from him is a former high draft pick coming into his third NFL season, while the team's offensive coordinator left the team for a head coaching job somewhere (NFL head coach if the team did well last year, college head coach if the team missed the playoffs).
Now, let's make a fantasy football projection for this hypothetical wide receiver. He has the same QB throwing to him, so this combo should have the same production in 2009. Right? Not necessarily.
The offensive line has changed in the offseason. Maybe the two new linemen will be better run blockers than pass blockers and maybe they get the quarterback injured. Maybe because they are better run blockers, the team is forced to run more often than in 2008. Also, the team drafted a rookie running back high, so this star RB is likely to help establish a better running game. This might mean that the QB and WR don't have to come up with as many big plays, and therefore their production goes down.
Then remember that the tight end is returning, so maybe the quarterback will throw more underneath routes to the tight end in 2009, where a season ago, he was throwing to this hypothetical star receiver. Then remember that the wide receiver across from our man is coming into his third year - a traditional season for that WR to break out and increase production. This might take production away from our star receiver, too.
Next, remember that the team has a new offensive coordinator taking over play calling. One thing for certain is there is going to be some change, for the better or worse. Maybe the new offensive coordinator likes to run the ball more. Maybe the new offensive coordinator prefers to open up the offense and throw the ball more.
Finally, more production for one player doesn't necessarily mean less production for our wide receiver. Maybe the offense is so much better that several players increase their fantasy football production. Maybe the team has a better running game, but this increases single coverage for our wide receiver and he makes more big plays in 2009.
On top of all these fantasy football projections you have to make, someone could get hurt in Week 1 and make all these calculations obsolete. That's where the weekly fantasy football projections come in.
Weekly Fantasy Football Projections
Weekly fantasy football projections happen once the NFL season has started. These are simple, one week fantasy football projections that deal with only this week's NFL schedule. Weekly fantasy football projections take into account any new injury news, your players' match-ups (which defense they're playing this week) and how your player has done up to this point in the year. The further you go into the 2009 NFL Season, for example, the less what your player did in the 2008 NFL Season matters. That becomes old news really quick once a new fantasy football season begins.
Fantasy Football Projections and Match-Ups
Match-ups are huge in the NFL. Your players' fantasy football projections are going to look a lot different if they're playing the Pittsburgh Steelers than if they're playing the Detroit Lions. So keep an eye on who your starters are playing that week to make an accurate fantasy football projection on that player.
Fantasy Football Projections and Injuries
Injuries can also have a huge impact on your fantasy football projections. This doesn't necessarily have to be your player's injury status. It might have to do with his quarterback, or his offensive linemen or even injuries that have occurred on the defense he's playing that week.
Fantasy football projections change quickly in the NFL. So once the NFL season begins, throw out all your preseason or yearly fantasy football projections and search the Internet for fantasy football sites that offer weekly fantasy football projections. Then keep doing that every week of your fantasy football season, hopefully right up to your fantasy football championship.