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Larry Johnson Re-Signs With the Chiefs
Just about every draft list has Larry Johnson as the #3 running back overall, behind Ladainian Tomlinson and Steven Jackson. The conventional logic is you take Johnson with the #3. But I tend to wonder about that logic. Let's look at the facts. Larry Johnson Fact #1: Johnson rushed the ball 415 times last year, which is an NFL record. There is a long history of runners who rushed 400+ times one year, who didn't regain their effectiveness the next year. Eddie George was never the same after his career year. Jamal Lewis was never the same, either. Neither of those runners was older than Larry Johnson at the time they rushed for over 400 carries. During the negotiations, Larry Johnson said he was a back with a running style similar to Earl Campbell's. He said that he runs upright and takes punishment, so he needs to get his money while he can get it. In other words, even Larry Johnson doesn't expect his tenure to last too long. I'm sure he's talking about a few years down the road, but Larry Johnson took a lot of punishment last year, and his lack of elusiveness means he took even more than a runner like Ladainian Tomlinson, whose shiftiness means he takes fewer direct shots. Larry Johnson Fact #2: The Chiefs passing game isn't what it once was. The skill positions around Larry Johnson are diminished in experience, if not talent. Gone is Trent Green, to be replaced with either journeyman Damon Huard or unproven 2nd year passer, Brodie Croyle. The Chiefs still have Eddie Kennison, but they are trying to get younger with Dwayne Bowe. Even future star receivers tend to struggle in their rookie years. Tony Gonzales is on the other side of 30 now, so his skills may begin to diminish. With the loss of Roaf, Gonzales was forced to stay in the pocket to block last year, further eroding his effectiveness and longevity. So I don't expect the performers around Larry Johnson to be what they once were. The Chiefs never had a stellar receiving corps, but they did used to have a veteran Trent Green, Eddie Kennison and Tony Gonzales to take some of the pressure off of the running back. That may no longer be the case. Larry Johnson Fact #3: The Chiefs Offensive line isn't what it once was. Perhaps most important is the state of the Chiefs offensive line. When Priest Holmes was tearing up the NFL, the Chiefs had the best o-line in the game. But last year saw the retirement of Willie Roaf. This last offseason saw Will Shields retire. Both Roaf and Shields are potential Hall of Famers. There's just no way to replace those guys. The situation which existed two years ago, when Larry Johnson put up record pace numbers in the second half of 2005, no longer exists. Fantasy Sports Live and Larry JohnsonI'm certain Larry Johnson will be the 3rd highest costing running backs to start the season. With his numbers in '05, I'm sure you'll want to draft him and save money not drafting Tomlinson or Jackson. I would suggest that, if you want to save money, you drop down a little further and take one of the young studs with a good Week 1 match up. For instance, grab Addai vs. the Saints. That should be a Week 1 shootout and New Orleans wasn't exactly a defensive juggernaut last year. Other Notes - Michael StrahanReports continue to leak out of New York City that Michael Strahan will soon report to the New York Giants team. Strahan claimed he was considering retirement in training camp, and has been fined $14,000 a day for missing Giants practices. A lot of speculation has centered around Strahan's divorce settlement, which requires him to pay $15 million to his ex-wife and $18,000 per month in child support. The theory is that Strahan needs an influx of cash, and therefore was holding out to get a new contract (and therefore signing bonus) from the Giants franchise. If that's the case, it hasn't worked. The Giants have continued with plans to move ahead without Michael Strahan, who missed the second half of last year with an injury. Some wondered if Strahan simply wasn't trying to get out of a draining preseason, saving his 35-year old body for another long NFL campaign. That may be the case. Reports say that Michael Strahan will return if he and the Giants can come to an agreement on the $400,000+ in fines Strahan has incurred during his abscence. Another report suggests that Strahan might return to the Giants for multiple years. Expect to see Michael Strahan return to the Giants this week. He might not be ready to start the season full time, and Justin Tuck (himself returning from major injury) may split time at end with Strahan early on. Expect Michael Strahan to be back in form by Game 3. Many believe the Giants Defense will be weak this year, but that overlooks the fact they were hit with major injuries throughout their defense last year. Osi Umenyiora and Strahan were out the last parts of the season, and losing your two best pass rushers will debilitate any defense. If Strahan returns, don't expect to see the 30-year old Michael Strahan, but this defense should be in the sleeper category based on the fact that its poor 2006 numbers were skewed by a string of injuries. Asante Samuel Returns to PatriotsAsante Samuel ended his holdout of the New England Patriots training camp today. With their star cornerback returning, expect to see 1st round pick Brandon Meriweather return to his natural position of safety for the Patriots. This resolves the one looming question about the New England Defense. This probably isn't a news flash, but the New England Patriots Defense remains one of the top five defenses in fantasy football. They added pass rushing outside linebacker Adalius Thomas in free agency from the Baltimore Ravens, while adding Meriweather (a possible eventual replacement for the aging Rodney Harrison) in the draft. Though some of the Patriots star defenders are getting older, they continue to find younger players to gradually replace aging veterans. Thomas and Meriweather are just the latest examples of this trend. Here's one fact you might not know. The 2006 Patriots D gave up the fewest points of any Patriots team in the history of the franchise. Given that the team won 3 Superbowl titles in the 2000's on basis of a rock solid defense, that's should signal to fantasy owners that the Patriots don't seem to be slowing down a bit. No wonder Las Vegas has Bill Belichik's squad installed as the favorite to win this year's Superbowl. |
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